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During his 2024 presidential bid, the former president pledged to eschew expensive and frequently catastrophic foreign military interventions like the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. This commitment formed a central part of his isolationist “America first” agenda. Yet soon after his inauguration, US forces were conducting airstrikes in Yemen and Iran. Turning southward, the president warned to take control of the Panama Canal. Now, US defense officials is getting ready for possible strikes against alleged “terrorist” narco-trafficking organizations within the borders of Colombia and Mexico. Of greatest urgent worry is a potential fresh administration attempt to enforce a new government in Venezuela.

Venezuela's Response and Escalating Tensions

Nicolás Maduro, the country's hard-left strongman leader, claims that this effort is already under way. He alleges that the US is waging a covert conflict against his nation after several deadly strikes on Venezuelan vessels in international waters. Trump last week informed Congress that the United States is involved in hostilities with drug cartels. He claims, without proof, that the targeted boats were carrying drugs bound for the US – and that Maduro bears responsibility. He has placed a $50m bounty on Maduro’s head.

Latin American nations are anxiously monitoring a major US military buildup around Venezuela, including warships, F-35 combat aircraft, an attack submarine and 2,200 marines. Such powerful assets are not very useful in anti-drug operations. However they might be deployed for attack, or to support special forces raids and airstrikes. On Thursday, Venezuela alleged the US of unauthorized entry by at least five F-35s. The president states he is preparing emergency powers to “protect our people” in case Venezuela comes under attack by the American empire.

Questioning the Reasons Behind the Moves

What is Trump up to? Drug smuggling is a serious issue – yet taking lives arbitrarily in international waters, while frequent and difficult to prosecute, remains against international law. Moreover, the UN state the majority of illegal drugs entering the US comes from Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is largely not transported via Venezuela. The president, a known avoided military service, likes to act the tough leader. He is now seeking to expel Venezuelan migrants, a large number originally fled to the US to escape economic measures he himself enforced. Experts propose he desires Venezuela’s abundant energy and natural wealth.

It’s true that Trump and his former national security adviser, attempted to replace Maduro back in 2019 in an event Caracas described as a regime change plot. Additionally, Maduro’s recent electoral win was widely condemned as rigged. If allowed to vote freely, Venezuelans would likely remove him. And, clashing ideologies are a factor, too. The leader, unworthy successor to his predecessor's socialist movement, is an affront to the president's imperial vision of an American-led the Americas, in which the 1823 Monroe doctrine is revived and free-market economics functions unchecked.

Absence of Coherent Strategy

Yet given his hapless missteps on other key foreign matters, the most likely reason for the president's actions is that, as usual, he lacks understanding about his actions – in Venezuela or Latin America overall. There’s no plan. He throws his weight about, takes rash decisions, fans fears of foreigners and forms policies based on if he “likes” foreign counterparts. In 2019, with Maduro on the ropes, Trump backed down. Now, large-scale armed involvement in Venezuela is still improbable. More probable is a heightened campaign of coercion involving destabilization, penalties, maritime strikes, and air and commando raids.

Far from weakening and isolating Maduro's government, the US could bring about the exact opposite. The president is already using the crisis to seize dictatorial emergency authority and mobilize public opinion with nationalist calls for unity. The president's bullying of other socialist regional nations – such as Colombia – and overconfident cheerleading for rightwing populists from Argentina and El Salvador – is spurring a regional backlash, as well. Most governments abhor the idea of a return to the bad old days of American interference in Washington’s “back yard”.

Latin American Backlash and Foreign Policy Setbacks

Trump’s effort to employ trade penalties and restrictions to strong-arm Brazil to pardoning its former hard-right leader Jair Bolsonaro failed dramatically last month. Massive protests took to the streets in Brazilian urban centers to protect what they perceived as an assault on national independence and legal principles. Public support for Bolsonaro’s successor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, increased. “We are not, and never again will we be, a dependent state,” he declared. Lula effectively told Trump, essentially, to get lost. Later, when they met during the United Nations general assembly, Trump backed off and was conciliatory.

The perception of a significant regression in inter-American relations grows inevitably. The White House sees Latin America mainly as a danger, associating it with drug trafficking, organised crime and incoming migration,” an analyst cautioned recently. “The US approach is essentially adversarial, favoring independent moves and dominance instead of partnership,” she added, stating: “The region is being treated not as a peer and more as a zone of control to be dominated according to American goals.”

Aggressive Officials and Rising Language

Trump’s hardline advisers contribute to the issue: notably a senior official, administration deputy chief of staff, and the secretary of state, a former lawmaker for Florida who is secretary of state and security advisor. For Rubio, a longtime opponent of leftwing governments in Cuba and Nicaragua, Maduro is unfinished business. Justifying the naval strikes, he stated: Seizures are ineffective. The solution is destroying them … And it’ll happen again.” Coming from the top US diplomat, this is quite a statement.

Long-term Implications

Trump’s efforts to reprise the position of regional regional enforcer, emulating former president Theodore Roosevelt – an interventionist frequent meddler – are regressive, risky and self-defeating. Long-term, the main beneficiary will probably be Beijing, a growingly powerful player, economic partner and leading member of the international bloc countries. While America burns its bridges globally, the administration is making China rise in influence.